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Primary Results — Georgia, Oklahoma, South Carolina See Primary results →
49 Projected 2026 Senate 48
34
9 5
3
2 14
31
From current race ratings · Current Senate: 47D – 53R
Not up (D) Safe D Likely D Lean D Toss-up Lean R Likely R Safe R Not up (R)
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
Unrated
No Race
Senate
R 53 - D 47
House
R 220 - D 215
Election Day
68 days

Biggest Movers 30-day polling average vs. the prior 30 days

Montana Senate ▲ 11.0 toward R
R+16.5 → R+27.5 2 polls
Michigan Senate ▼ 5.8 toward D
R+4.5 → D+1.3 11 polls
Pennsylvania Governor ▼ 5.7 toward R
D+19.0 → D+13.3 3 polls
North Carolina Senate ▲ 3.9 toward D
D+5.5 → D+9.4 9 polls

Races to Watch Updated just now

Kansas Senate
R Roger Marshall
Toss-up
Michigan Senate
D Abdul El-SayedR Mike Rogers
Toss-up ▼5.8 D 11 polls
Texas Senate
D James TalaricoR Ken Paxton
Toss-up 8 polls
AZ-01
D Amish ShahR Jay Feely
Toss-up
AZ-06
R Juan Ciscomani
Toss-up
CA-22
R David Valadao
Toss-up
CO-08
R Gabe Evans
Toss-up
FL-22
D Pia DandiyaR Casey Askar
Toss-up

Today's Sourcing

August 26, 2026
— Morning Consult: Democrats (D) 44.00% | Republicans (R) 44.00%
PA — The New York Times/Siena University: Josh Shapiro (D) 54.00% | Stacy Garrity (R) 37.00%
PA — The New York Times/Siena University: Josh Shapiro (D) 55.00% | Stacy Garrity (R) 39.00%
AZ — HighGround: Katie Hobbs (D) 50.00% | Andy Biggs (R) 34.00%
WI — TIPP Insights: David Crowley (D) 43.00% | Tom Tiffany (R) 41.00%
Top fundraiser: T. Ossoff $77.3M Outside spending: $141.9M
22 news stories
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Latest Political News Updated just now

Polling

Rep. Kathy Castor and Mike Beltran are running in the general election for the redrawn Florida's 14th Congressional District

FL House
Ballotpedia News 8 hours ago
General

The other Dan Sullivan makes November ballot against Sen. Dan Sullivan

AK Senate
Politico 8 hours ago
Campaign

‘It's put up or shut up time’: Battleground Republicans want the Darline treatment

SC House
Politico 8 hours ago
Campaign

Trump-backed candidate wins primary for Oklahoma governor

OK Governor
Politico 9 hours ago
General

Trump nabs crucial primary wins in South Carolina, Oklahoma: 4 takeaways

OK Senate
The Hill 9 hours ago
General

Trump-backed Mazzei defeats Drummond in Oklahoma governor GOP runoff

OK Governor
The Hill 9 hours ago

State-by-State Overview

State EV 2024 Result Senate Race 2026 Margin Updated
AL Alabama 9 Safe R Everett W Wess / Barry Moore Safe R -- --
AK Alaska 3 Likely R Dan Sullivan Safe R -- --
AZ Arizona 11 Lean R Not up in 2026 -- --
AR Arkansas 6 Safe R Tom Cotton Likely R R+9.7 3 Aug 18
CA California 54 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
CO Colorado 10 Likely D John Hickenlooper Safe D -- --
CT Connecticut 7 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
DE Delaware 3 Likely D Chris Coons Safe D -- --
DC District of Columbia 3 Safe D No Senate seats -- --
FL Florida 30 Likely R Ashley Moody Likely R -- --
GA Georgia 16 Tilt R Jon Ossoff Lean D D+7.0 1 Aug 17
HI Hawaii 4 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
ID Idaho 4 Safe R Jim Risch Safe R -- --
IL Illinois 19 Likely D Juliana Stratton / Don Tracy Safe D -- --
IN Indiana 11 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
IA Iowa 6 Likely R Josh Turek / Ashley Hinson Safe R R+3.0 1 Aug 4
KS Kansas 6 Safe R Roger Marshall Toss-up R+1.0 2 Aug 8
KY Kentucky 8 Safe R Charles Booker / Andy Barr Safe R -- --
LA Louisiana 8 Safe R Jamie Davis / Julia Letlow Safe R -- --
ME Maine 4 Lean D Susan Collins Lean D D+3.0 2 Aug 10
MD Maryland 10 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
MA Massachusetts 11 Safe D Ed Markey Safe D -- --
MI Michigan 15 Tilt R Abdul El-Sayed / Mike Rogers Toss-up D+1.3 11 Aug 17
MN Minnesota 10 Tilt D Peggy Flanagan / Michele Tafoya Lean D D+5.0 2 Aug 18
MS Mississippi 6 Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe R -- --
MO Missouri 10 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
MT Montana 4 Safe R Alani Ines Bankhead / Kurt Alme / Kyle Austin Safe R R+27.5 2 Aug 4
NE Nebraska 5 Safe R Pete Ricketts Lean R -- --
NV Nevada 6 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
NH New Hampshire 4 Tilt D OPEN (Jeanne Shaheen) Lean D -- --
NJ New Jersey 14 Lean D Cory Booker Safe D -- --
NM New Mexico 5 Lean D OPEN (Ben Ray Lujan) Safe D -- --
NY New York 28 Likely D Not up in 2026 -- --
NC North Carolina 16 Tilt R Roy Cooper / Michael Whatley Likely D D+9.4 9 Aug 12
ND North Dakota 3 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
OH Ohio 17 Likely R Jon Husted Lean D D+5.3 3 Aug 13
OK Oklahoma 7 Safe R Jasmine Thomas / Kevin Hern Safe R R+24.0 1 Aug 9
OR Oregon 8 Likely D Jeff Merkley Safe D -- --
PA Pennsylvania 19 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
RI Rhode Island 4 Likely D Jack Reed Safe D -- --
SC South Carolina 9 Safe R Darline Graham Safe R -- --
SD South Dakota 3 Safe R Mike Rounds Safe R -- --
TN Tennessee 11 Safe R Bill Hagerty Safe R -- --
TX Texas 40 Likely R James Talarico / Ken Paxton Toss-up D+2.4 8 Aug 13
UT Utah 6 Safe R Not up in 2026 -- --
VT Vermont 3 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
VA Virginia 13 Lean D Mark Warner Safe D -- --
WA Washington 12 Safe D Not up in 2026 -- --
WV West Virginia 4 Safe R Shelley Moore Capito Safe R -- --
WI Wisconsin 10 Tilt R Not up in 2026 -- --
WY Wyoming 3 Safe R Harriet Hageman Safe R -- --

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Methodology

A race rating is the 30-day PollingSource average when enough polls exist (Toss-up under 3 points; Lean 3 to under 6; Likely 6 to under 10; Safe 10 or more). One poll never sets the rating by itself. Expert consensus from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections is the fallback when polls are missing.

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